41st Lesson
The (almost non-existent) 'Law of Averages'. To the gambler, a fatal error. Gambling institutions, such as casinos, will always welcome you through their doors if you are of this mindset. The fact is
that while a series of events may well normalise in frequency over a period of time, this is not a principle which has any sound value to the gambler. In fact, forget this law even exists.
It's part of our personality that we always think that things should even out in the long run. But how long, and when did this run begin? At the spin of a roulette wheel, toss of a coin, or the roll
of a die, there are fixed laws of probability. Red or black (but excluding zero), odd or even, high or low, heads or tails, these are all even money chances. These odds never change at the start
of each single event. But what about sequences? With a die, how long before you can throw a six? Throw it six times and you are certain at least one attempt must be a six? NO. To two decimal points,
there is only a 66.51% chance you will throw a six (or any other single nominated number). How about throw an even or odd value? Certainty? NO again. You have (to 4 decimal points) a 98.4375% chance this
time. In any of these events, you can go to infinity and NEVER reach a pure 100%!
Note: Honest and fair gambles can sometimes appear that way, but not always. An uneven coin, a loaded die, a talented croupier, sleight of hand, etc. Always be wise to those offering you games of
chance.
There are games of chance where you can get the odds in your favour, given a long enough run of play. Card counting at 'Blackjack' (or 'Pontoon') is one. Casinos tend not to like 'card counters' as this
system counts the value of cards already dealt. The higher or lower the value will determine your chances of winning. Once upon a time, in America, card counters were seriously frowned upon. In some
establishments, violence was used to 'discourage' card counters from ever entering their chosen establishment ever again. In modern casinos, you will likely find that dealers will use something called a 'shoe'
to deal cards from 4 (or more?) shuffled decks. And even then, not all the cards in the shoe will be played. This drastically reduces the odds in the player's favour and makes the exercise of card counting a
far more difficult one.
There is a moral to this story, and one which is known by all of those who are 'worldly wise'. It is 'never give a sucker an even break'. Learn that well because unscrupulous people use it against those
who are easily fooled ("suckers"). Life can be like that as well. Not setting out to deliberately catch you out, but it does seem like that sometimes.
"Why do I never get an even break?", is another popular phrase. The fact is you have to make your own luck, make your own breaks. And while purely random opportunities may sometimes come your way, you will
learn that the most rewarding of all are those you create yourself.
So go through life not expecting anything good to happen to you. You make your own luck. And do not expect to win each time. You will lose once in a while, but losing will just make you wiser.
42nd Lesson
The dilemma of temptation. Should I, or you, or shouldn't I, or you? Why are we even thinking about it!
A true story! Many years ago, I read an article in a newspaper about how someone had left £25,000 in a plastic supermarket shopping bag in an alleyway in the city where I lived. It was a place that I
passed by regularly while out and about during the day, but this was discovered later at night. The finder was very consciencious and took the bag to a police station. I thought to myself, what if it was me
who found it? Life wasn't great for me at that time, and the money would have cleared the mortgage on my shared-ownership property - and with a few thosand left over. But that was the Devil speaking to me and
putting ideas in my head. Having said this, it would still have been a dilemma for me. I thought that anyone who was foolish enough to leave that much money in an alleyway between two shops must have been out
of their mind. Maybe drunk, and wandered off to take a pee? Then forgot to go back and pick up their bag? There had to be a logical reason that so much money was left in such an unusual location. Maybe it was
left there by a very wealthy eccentric as a test to see if it would be handed over to the police. I have previously read of such strange behaviour.
Of course, for me, it was purely academic. I wasn't in the right place at the right time, or maybe I should say the wrong place at the wrong time. Because of my own circumstances I would have suffered the
torment of handing it over to the police, or keeping it. If it were unsequenced banknotes, that would even been easier. It was dark, and no ccTV cameras were around at that time. It would have been so easy just
to pick it up and walk off with it. But as I say, the Devil was putting these thoughts into my head.
You can be certain that everyone reading this story would have had mixed opinions. Keep the money, or hand it over? What would you do? Perhaps if you take it home and then wait for someone to report it
missing, and the story appearing in the media, then this may have been an option. It would have been easier to keep the money IF the real owner was extremely rich. Then you would think, would he really miss
the money? Of course, legally, you would be guilty of theft if you kept the money. Anything you take which is not rightly yours, even such circumstances, is still theft. So even if you keep the cash, you have
that thought nagging away in your head for a long time to come.
To be honest, and to this day, and due to my circumstances at that time, I do not know what I would have done. I would certainly have experienced a range of emotions, and a feeling of guilt if I had kept
the money. OK, all said and done, I didn't find the money, so no problem. But it really is something we should all keep in mind. What if such a situation should arise in the future? I do know of some evil
people who are seriously corrupt swindlers, and if it were their money, keeping it would not have preyed upon my mind too heavily. But all other situations? Dilemma time again. One would need some serious
justification for keeping the money. At this time, I would return the money - if the rightful owner could be located. But if nobody claims it, then my conscience would be clear. Maybe I would even use at least
some of it for good causes, and one of those for me is animal welfare. So I say again, who knows? More critically, do you know?